Noise
A Flaw in Human Judgment
by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony & Cass R. Sunstein
Synopsis
Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein argue that variability in human judgment — 'noise' — is as serious a problem as bias, and is endemic in organizations from courtrooms to insurance to medicine. They propose 'decision hygiene' as the cure.
Editorial review
If 'Thinking, Fast and Slow' was about bias, 'Noise' is about variance — the often invisible inconsistency that makes the same case decided differently by the same expert on a different day. The lessons are uncomfortable for any organization that makes judgments at scale.
Key takeaways
- 1
Two judgments by the same expert on the same case can vary wildly — and usually do.
- 2
Noise audits are practical and most organizations should run them.
- 3
Aggregating independent judgments reduces noise even without removing bias.
- 4
Structured procedures often outperform unstructured expertise.
The right reader
Leaders of organizations that make repeated judgments at scale: medicine, hiring, lending, sentencing, insurance, performance review.
What it touches
How it reads
Rigorous, organizational.
Reading difficulty: Moderate
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